Desecration of a Church

Today we received horrific news. Upwards of 50 Kenyans were burned alive in the church in which they had sought refuge. There were women and children who died horrible deaths because the post-election violence is escalating. This crime is unforgivable. Innocent souls were lost in a scene reminiscent of the Rwanda genocide where thugs would target churches and massacre entire villages that were hiding there from the violence. The victims were from the Kikuyu ethnic group and were murdered by gangs from the Kalenjin, Luhya and Luo ethnic groups. This act was sickening and Mr. Odinga must strongly condemn it.

Kenya is NOT Rwanda. The ethnic killings MUST stop. Mr. Kibaki and Mr. Odinga must call on their supporters to stop the violence.

The political situation is confusing. The government is offering talks with the opposition but there is little that the government can offer the opposition because power in Kenya is concentrated in the Office of the President and that is what is the center of the controversy -- the Presidency. On the other hand, the opposition's hard line stance (they refuse to meet with the government unless Kibaki accepts defeat which he will never do) is unrealistic. Both sides, it seems, are buckling down for a showdown tomorrow when an opposition protest is planned without government approval. There might be an enormous amount of violence tomorrow in Kenya and I am very upset.

The government position is clear: Focus attention on the ethnic violence and crack down hard. The government MUST prevent large numbers of Kenyans from congregating in Nairobi's city center because this would indicate a loss of control. The battles will be fought on the edges of the slums on the outskirts of the city center as people try to leave and law enforcement try to keep them in. If the people break through the police lines, who knows what will happen. Many, many Kenyans might die tomorrow. The question is how far the government is willing to go and how far the people are willing to go. This is going to be a test of wills.

The government refuses to conduct a recount administered by an independent body. This is odd if they won the election fair and square. The opposition has just indicated that they are willing to participate in an interim government for 3 months with the aim of re-running the presidential election.

So what's gonna happen tomorrow with the proposed rally?
People in the slums will try leave and head for the city center to protest. There will, naturally, be a police cordon around all slums because the government has banned this event. As more and more people build up at the edges of the slums and try leave, the police will have to decide what level of force to use. If the people are peaceful and are led by women it might be tough to contain the people. But if young men are leading and become violent, then many people will die.

Another big question is what happens if the police cordons are breached? Running battles will probably ensue all over the city center because the temptation to loot might be be too strong. If the people remain focused on the political goal, then we might witness an amazing political revolution. If they decide to loot, then all will be lost and mayhem will ensue. My big worry is that it only takes a few thugs to start and escalate violence. This is why this protest must be led by women.

Then the 64 million dollar question is: what will happen to the opposition leaders if/when they attempt to reach the city center. Will they be arrested? And if they are, what will be the response in the immediate vicinity and what will be the response in the country as a whole? Is Raila Odinga willing to risk arrest and what would this mean strategically for him? Is Mwai Kibaki willing to arrest Raila Odinga and other opposition leaders and what will this mean strategically for him? It is important to note that in Kenya, getting arrested generally means you lose.

Unless, an 11th hour deal is brokered, Thursday, January 3 2008 is judgment day for Kenya.