Kenya in distress...

Introduction
The East African nation of Kenya (my native land) conducted General Elections on December 27, 2007. It was an extremely well attended contest with 70% of eligible voters voting, according to some reports. The voting itself was mostly uneventful. However, problems emerged during the tallying process. This resulted in the incumbent President winning the Presidential election (which, in Kenya, is separate from the parliamentary vote) DESPITE 80% of his cabinet being summarily voted out of office, AND his party's parliamentary majority in the Kenya Parliament dwindle to a measly 33 seats out of 210 seats. This would be akin to the Democrats winning more than 60 seats in the US Senate and more than 300 seats in the US House of Representatives, but Giuliani winning the US Presidency by a couple thousand votes. It’s possible, but fishy.

First, let me say, I am an American citizen of Kenyan descent so I have no direct stake in the recently concluded 2007 Kenyan elections more than a deeply felt desire to see my native country advance to a more evolved species of political animal. Having said that: Clearly, the first thing that must happen is that the tribal killings and resultant reprisals, as well as the indiscriminate looting of legitimate businesses MUST stop because the ethnic violence only obscures the main issue: that, based on the information currently available to me, the 2007 Kenya Presidential Election was BLATANTLY & AUDACIOUSLY stolen by the incumbent government. This is a provocative and pointed statement, but this is what I believe.

Direct Evidence
On the point of the veracity of the election results, there has been overwhelming reporting of direct evidence of rigging from credible news sources the world over (e.g. The BBC, The New York Times, The Times, The Guardian, The Independent) including, but not limited to, ballot stuffing using photocopied voting returns; outright inflation of voting numbers in government strongholds e.g. the Precinct Returning Officer originally declaring around 50,000 votes for the government winner, but then numbers that appeared in the national tally for the exact same precinct were magically increased to around 78,000. In addition, voter turnout in some government stronghold constituencies were as high as 200% (i.e. there were 70,000 registered voters in a constituency, but 140,000 votes were tallied from that same constituency). Now, 115% voter turnout is undeniably fake but it is still possibly acceptable given that elections can never be perfect. But a 200% voter turnout is beyond the pale.

Circumstantial Evidence
This direct evidence of rigging taken together with the equally overwhelming circumstantial evidence of Mr. Kibaki (the incumbent President) losing 6 out of the 8 provinces, yet winning the presidency outright; as well as 80% of Mr. Kibaki's cabinet being summarily voted out of office yet he still wins the presidency. Then there was the suspicious 2 day delay of reporting of results from Central and Eastern provinces (the incumbent's stronghold); the suspicious tallying process including the mysterious disappearance of OFFICIAL returning officers from certain constituencies for up to 48 hours (there was not even cell phone contact). Then the secret declaration of Mr. Kibaki as the winner and his immediate swearing in less than an hour after the results were announced. On top of this, there is the subsequent government’s outright rejection of a recount request; and the subsequent government imposed media blackout. All these factors point to the fact that the allegation that the 2007 Kenya Presidential General Election was fraudulent is NOT a frivolous charge, and deserves, at a minimum, independent auditing.

Legitimacy of democratic elections
Having said that, the most unfortunate consequences following this scandalous election are NOT the tribal ones. Though the tribal clashes have been the most widely reported consequence of the 2007 Kenya election and, admittedly, this ethnic violence cannot be ignored, this tribal conflict remains, in my view, at best, a red herring. The most unfortunate consequence of this election is, without question, the legitimacy of the democratic process and the Kenyan peoples’ perceptions of and faith in this democratic process.

The legitimacy of democratic elections depends on the confidence the people have in them. This confidence in democratic elections is built over time and over numerous elections where, the generally accepted pre-election peoples’ voice is, more or less reflected in the post-election voting tallies. If this happens enough times, the people acquire an innate and steady belief in the authenticity of the democratic election process that will survive the occasional anomaly that will eventually occur in all democratic societies (see e.g. U.S. Presidential elections of 2004).

The generally perceived illegitimacy of Kenya’s 2007 election result does enormous damage to this nascent process of the seeding, rooting and growth of faith and confidence in democracy writ large and, specifically, in the technical and bureaucratic processes that democratic elections require. The Kenyan political psyche and Kenyan political behavior desperately needs to believe in the notion that “even if we are a minority, our rights will be protected”. Kenyans showed their faith in the democratic process by showing up and voting in record numbers -- by some estimates, upwards of 70% of eligible voters. What will happen to that faith in democracy and its processes after this election? What will happen if Kenyans begin to believe their votes mean nothing?

Effect of underlying ethnic tensions
The following statements will be controversial and even offensive to some Kenyans but let me say it loud and clear and without equivocation: 2007 was NOT inherently the Luo ethnic group's turn to lead Kenya! Conversely, the Kikuyu ethnic group do NOT, as many other Kenyans, rightly or wrongly believe, have a birthright to lead Kenya. The Presidency of Kenya should not be a zero sum game! If you lose the presidential election, you do what everyone else in mature democracies does: wait till the next election, build up your supporters and compete again and maybe you'll win. This is what happens in the more evolved democratic species of planet earth.

The sad thing is that this election was an opportunity for Kenyans to begin to evolve by understanding that the Presidency of Kenya is not the be all and end all. But because the election was, based on what I currently know, so blatantly rigged, and because Mr. Kibaki is fighting so hard to hold on to power by using soviet style police state tactics, these actions will only reinforce this PRIMITIVE genetic “winner takes all” predisposition that Kenyans are prone to: that "It’s the Presidency or broke; that without the Presidency you are nothing." Kenyans are ready to evolve beyond this but their leaders keep failing them and, worse, keep conditioning them to feel that if they don't have the Presidency, they have nothing.

What to do now?
Mass peaceful and sustained civil disobedience is the way to go. I say this because if I were a cold-blooded Kibaki adviser hell-bent on holding on to power, I would advocate a two pronged policy: 1) Play for time. Black-out the non-government controlled media to gag both the opposition and international media and, most importantly, to keep the Kenyan people misinformed and confused, and hope that in a week or two the ardor will die down and passions will cool and people will become indifferent; 2) I would also advise him to incite ethnic violence in targeted areas and then crack down hard and when enough people have died, both Kenyans and the international community will likely decide that a dishonest peace is the lesser evil between an endless and uncertain but righteous resistance.

This is why sustained peaceful mass civil disobedience is the way to go. This will better spotlight the fact that it is Kenya's democracy that's at stake and not atavistic ethnic resentments. To this end, I would organize rallies led by old women and children followed by the general public marching peacefully. Surely many of the Police & GSU officers charged with maintaining law and order are ALSO Kenyan and have ALSO seen what has happened and ALSO believe the election may have been fraudulent. How, then, can these officers beat up or even kill peaceful women and children advocating what they themselves, though professional law enforcement officers, also believe because they too are Kenyan voters with consciences? This is the confrontation that must happen and cannot be lost: peaceful women and children vs. armed government soldiers.

Purpose of Civil Disobedience
The purpose of any civil disobedience must be aimed at informing the recalcitrant administration that its authority is not recognized until the true result of the election is ascertained. In addition, civil disobedience must be aimed at educating the ordinary people that their resistance to tyranny is valid and effective and not futile. If civil disobedience forces a recount by an independent body then that ought to be enough. If civil disobedience causes a run-off election overseen by independent bodies, then that ought to be enough. Civil disobedience should not be used to disrupt ordinary commerce and trade, nor should it be used to target rival ethnic groups and ratchet up ethnic tensions. It should always be peaceful; deriving its power from the certitude of its moral correctness.

Possibility for Negotiations?
The pessimistic side of me worries that Kibaki and Raila may have gone too far for either side to be able to back down while saving face by either conceding defeat, or offering the possibility of a recount or accepting a run-off vote. If this is the case, then Mr. Kibaki will naturally be forced to go all the way: arrest all opposition leaders, declare martial law, including indefinite detentions without trial etc. until order is established throughout Kenya. This would be a disaster because many people will die if this happens. But I still have faith that sustained and coordinated civil disobedience plus international pressure is the only way to counter this.

Wild Card
Of course the wild card in all this is the Kenyan military who, to their credit, have not gotten involved... yet. From what I have heard the military is divided. This might be good news because it would mean that a political solution is more likely to occur than if the military were unanimously behind one candidate one way or the other. On the other hand, if things reach the boiling point, the military might split might unfortunately devolve Kenya into a full blown civil war. May the Holy Saints and our Sacred Ancestors prevent this from happening.

Role of foreigners with Kenyan heritage
For Kenyan-born people with foreign citizenship, if you believe this election was fraudulent and understand and accept the importance of this election, then you must harass your Congressman, Senator, MP or other legislative representative in your adopted country and keep the pressure on. This is also the only way to compete with the higher profile media situations in Pakistan and the current US primary election cycle. Call your representative every day and call several times a day. Indicate your ability to donate and organize like minded folks and keep badgering them to pressure the State Department/Foreign and Commonwealth Office etc. to pressure the US, UK, EU etc to pressure Kibaki to agree to a recount or runoff conducted by an independent party.

Final thoughts
One final comment, this result CANNOT be allowed to stand because it sets an unacceptable precedent. If the result stands, then why should the elections of 2012, 2017, 2022 etc. be any different? People will vote and the powers that be will still remain in charge. We will go back to the Moi days of the 1980s. This 2007 election and what happens after is a HUGE and CRITICAL opportunity to further entrench the principles and process of democratic government in the Kenyan psyche and in Kenyan political behavior. We cannot afford to mess this up. As an American of Kenyan descent my heart bleeds for the land of my fathers.

God help us all.

Andrew Owiti