On Saturday, the political temperature in Kenya dropped dramatically – perhaps because the opposition protestors were tired, or perhaps because Kenyans decided to be reasonable – whatever the reason, we celebrated the chance for a negotiated settlement. We were premature in our celebration and our hopes seem to have been seriously misplaced – nay we were naïve about how politics works in Kenya.

Politics is a Power Game
Politics is about power and who controls power. Today, power exists in 1) the number of gun barrels you control; 2) the number of strong allies you can mobilize; and 3) the strength of the will of the people you are trying to exercise power over.

The Opposition suffers from a serious deficit in all three power bases.

People Power
First, and most importantly for the opposition, after the results were announced, serious questions were asked of the will of the people of Kenya to resist the fraud that had been perpetrated on them and the clearly emerging answer is that Kenyan’s are not willing to risk everything over this election. I say this because the Opposition leaders called for million man marches a number of times and civil disobedience and every time the government’s law enforcement apparatus was able to beat back attempts at organizing widespread civil disobedience and mass protests. The reason this happened was because most of the protests seemed to be concentrated in slums that are easily cordoned off and controlled. Had Kenya’s middle class risen up, things might have been different. This is EXTREMELY crucial because a general uprising of ‘the people’ was the Opposition’s ace in the hole. If the people are NOT willing to rise up and heed your call then what this indicates is that your power-base – the supposedly disenfranchised people – offer you NO power because they are willing to accept a stolen election if it ensures peace over a righteous but personally costly resistance.

Foreign Allies
Second, though many foreign powers have openly stated that the elections were rigged, they said this in a context under which civil war seemed imminent. As the Kibaki administration begins to assert authority by controlling civil disorder, many foreign governments are likely to come to a number of conclusions: 1) Fraudulent peace is better than righteous anarchy; and 2) Better the Devil you know than the one you don’t. Kibaki is a known and favorable quantity in all the indices important to powerful foreign governments – conservative, pro- big business, pro-western, pro-commerce, steady and calm. Odinga, his rival, is, on the other hand, is a charismatic firebrand whose father was a known socialist. Also, Odinga was educated partly in the former East Germany. These facts alone will, and, in my estimation, have already cooled the planet’s only Superpower’s desire to support his resistance. The US has a long history of going to the mat for popular uprisings AGAINST communist/socialist governments. However, when these popular uprisings might bring a potential leftist/socialist to power, the US almost always looks the other way. Initially, the US retracted its congratulations offered to Kibaki, now the official US position, as articulated by Mr. Frazer, is that: there was evidence of rigging but both sides possibly engaged in it, which, is, incidentally, Kibaki’s line. Because the US government is unwilling to support the Kenya Opposition in the way that it supported the Ukrainian Opposition, this robs the Opposition of the most important ally it could have – The government of The United States of America. This, in my view, is fatal.

Military Power
Third, the Opposition has no guns. The top brass of the Armed Forces of Kenya were present at Kibaki’s secret swearing in and have been present at all major State functions. This is a full-throated declaration of their position. Even if the Opposition had guns, would they be willing to use them given their inability to organize effective mass protest? And if they had guns, would this be an appropriate outcome for Kenya?

Kibaki’s moves
If I were a cold-blooded Kibaki advisor, based on the above, I would suggest that he act like there is no controversy, and, more importantly, that he act like he is the magnanimous Head of State offering a coalition to any aggrieved parties. I would suggest that he crackdown on any civil disorder while offering peace and reconciliation. Eventually, the Kenyan people and foreign governments will fall in line as long as he maintains control of civil order. This is the most crucial factor. If total chaos ensues, his administration will fall.

Foreign Governments
Foreign governments have limited interests in intruding in African elections as long as the African government is not too repressive and shares certain bedrock values with the foreign government e.g. free commerce. Beyond this, a foreign government’s main interest in any internal African power struggle is in sitting back and waiting to see who emerges victorious and then deciding whether to work with them. After all, if Kenya’s own people are unwilling to stand up and fight for what many believe is a fraudulent election, why should London, Paris or Beijing care?

Conclusion
My considered opinion is that the Opposition has been thoroughly out-maneuvered. Their ace in the hole – a mass uprising – is not going to materialize. Mr. Kibaki seems to have better read the character of the Kenyan people.